Our final update to our 2022 race ratings shifts 30 races toward the Republicans and none toward the Democrats.Based on lagging turnout, especially in areas and among demographics key to Democratic successes in 2018 and on a significant Republican financial advantage to close out the campaign cycle, we have downgraded the Democrats’ expected statewide performance. We have also adjusted the model to throttle back slightly on blue-ward movements in many suburban districts while slightly accelerating red-ward movements in South Texas districts.In many ways, we are seeing patterns that remind us of 2010. The main difference is, there are far fewer competitive or marginal seats for Democrats to lose this year than in 2010, which was a wipeout election, especially in the Texas House.As it stands, we now project Republicans to sweep statewide races, gain one seat in the Senate, gain a net four seats in the House and gain a net two seats in the U.S. House delegation.

Statewide Rating Change

• LTGOV (Patrick): Lean R to Likely R

Senate Rating Changes

• SD15 (Whitmire): Safe D to Likely D
• SD17 (Huffman): Likely R to Safe R
• SD18 (Kolkhorst): Likely R to Safe R
• SD19 (Gutierrez): Likely D to Lean D
• SD25 (Campbell): Likely R to Safe R
• SD27 open (LaMantia): Lean D to Toss Up

House Rating Changes

• HD33 (Holland): Likely R to Safe R
• HD34 (Herrero): Lean D to Toss Up
• HD35 (Longoria): Likely D to Lean D
• HD37 open (Lopez): Toss Up to Lean R
• HD41 (Guerra): Likely D to Lean D
• HD42 (Raymond): Safe D to Likely D
• HD52 open (Harris): Lean R to Likely R
• HD54 (Buckley): Lean R to Likely R
• HD63 open (Bumgarner): Lean R to Likely R
• HD70 open (Jolly): Lean D to Toss Up
• HD74 (Morales): Toss Up to Lean R
• HD99 (Geren): Likely R to Safe R
• HD102 (Ramos): Safe D to Likely D
• HD112 (Button): Lean R to Likely R
• HD118 (Lujan): Toss Up to Lean R
• HD121 (Allison): Lean R to Likely R
• HD133 open (DeAyala): Lean R to Likely R

Congress Rating Changes

• CD5 (Gooden): Likely R to Safe R
• CD10 (McCaul): Likely R to Safe R
• CD15 open (De la Cruz-Hernandez): Lean R to Likely R
• CD27 (Cloud): Likely R to Safe R
• CD28 (Cuellar): Lean D to Toss Up
• CD34 (Gonzalez): Lean D to Toss Up

There will be no further updates to our race ratings this cycle.©2022 Texas Election Source LLC