By a 59%-41% margin, voters in Kansas rejected a proposed constitutional amendment that effectively would have banned abortion procedures in the state. More than 900K Kansans cast ballots, representing 47% of registered voters.

Donald Trump carried the state, 56%-42%, in 2020. “No” over-performed Joe Biden by at least 16 points in each of the state’s four congressional districts, and “No” carried each district.

Based on unofficial results, approximately 255K votes cast in the referendum came from Democratic primary voters and another roughly 465K came from Republican voters. While it is likely that some registered Democrats and Republicans skipped their primary but voted in the referendum, we will assume for simplicity that the remaining 190K voters were unaffiliated (Kansas has closed primaries.). The number of Democratic primary voters plus non-primary voters sums to 444K, roughly 90K short of the number of “No” votes in the referendum. This implies roughly 1 in 5 Republican primary voters also voted “No.”

The 255K Democratic primary voters represented a 29% increase over the 2020 primary for non-presidential offices. The number of Republican primary voters increased by 11% over 2020. In raw numbers, those increases were 57K Democrats and 47K Republicans. Compared to the 2018 gubernatorial primary, Democratic turnout was up 63% (99K voters) and Republican turnout was up 46% (146K voters).

It is difficult to draw conclusions from the vote, despite the headlines and hot takes about how the results demonstrate an advantage for Democrats in November. Keep in mind that voters were weighing a single issue in this election. Come November, voters will be weighing candidates against each other, likely on numerous considerations including purely partisan labels. While we no longer have a single-punch, straight-party voting option in Texas, straight-party voting nonetheless remains robust.

However, the abortion issue may result in increased enthusiasm among Democratic voters and, potentially more importantly, among independent and young voters, to vote in November. May is the key word here, and we cannot overlook the potential for other issues, such as inflation or border security, to (continue to) be more important to more voters who consistently cast ballots in Texas elections.

Arizona ‘Audit’: Only one of hundreds of alleged dead voters casting ballots in Maricopa Co. (Phoenix) in the 2020 general election was actually dead, according to a criminal investigation conducted by state Atty. Gen. Mark Brnovich. The investigation follows the “audit” of the election conducted by the Cyber Ninjas at the request of the Republican-controlled Senate.

“Our agents investigated all individuals that Cyber Ninjas reported as dead, and many were very surprised to learn they were allegedly deceased,” Brnovich said. Aside from the single voter who had died prior to the election, “all other persons listed as deceased were found to be current voters.”

Brnovich’s office investigated nearly 6K other allegations made in a report that made “no distinction between dead voters and dead registrants.” Those investigations resulted in “only a handful of potential cases … ultimately determined to be isolated instances.”

And yet, a day later, election deniers won Republican primaries for senator and secretary of state and lead the primary for governor.

©2022 Texas Election Source LLC