Early voting concludes tomorrow (Friday) for Tuesday’s first-in-the-nation primary elections.

Through yesterday (Wednesday), the 10th day of the early voting period, statewide turnout is 4.01% for the Republican primary and 2.45% for the Democratic primary. A little over 1.1M Texans have voted in person or by mail (and had their mail ballots accepted).

The number of voters casting ballots in the Republican primary is now slightly higher than at this point in 2018 in the 15 counties with the most registered voters (RVs). The 352K votes cast is the highest through 10 days for a gubernatorial primary, eclipsing the 336K mark set in 2018. The number of votes cast continues to trail 2020 (-18%) and 2016 (-27%). Cameron and Hidalgo Cos. continue to see record numbers of early votes cast in the Republican primary.

In those same counties, 315K people have voted early in the Democratic primary, which continues to run behind the pace set in 2018 (365K). The number of Democratic votes cast so far is 8% below this point in 2016, 45% below 2020 and 56% below the 2008 record of 718K. None of the 15 counties are seeing record numbers of Democratic early votes.

Republican voters outnumber Democratic voters, 352K to 315K, in the 15 counties with the most registered voters. In the other 239 counties, Republicans outnumber Democrats, 337K to 106K. Three quarters of Democratic early votes have been cast in the 15 counties with the most RVs, and two thirds have come from the 10 counties with the most RVs. Just over half of Republican early votes have come from the 15 counties with the most RVs.

Turnout outside the 15 largest counties is 5.73% for Republicans and 1.80% for Democrats.

In 18 mostly South Texas counties, the number of Republican votes cast through 10 days of early voting already exceeds the total number of Republican votes cast in 2018 including all of early voting and Election Day. Four other counties – Brewster, Hidalgo, Jefferson and Mason – are already at 90% of their respective 2018 totals.

‍GOV (Likely R): A new Emerson College poll has Gov. Greg Abbott (R) with the support of 61% of “very likely” Republican voters, followed by Allen West (12%) and Don Huffines (9%). Beto O’Rourke leads the Democratic field at 78% with no one else polling above 5%. Abbott leads O’Rourke, 52%-45%, in a hypothetical general election matchup.

‍AG (Lean R): That Emerson College poll shows Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton leading the field but falling short of a majority. Paxton is supported by 43%, followed by Land Comm. George P. Bush (20%). Eva Guzman and U.S. Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-Tyler) are tied at 12%, and 14% are undecided. When those undecided voters are allocated, a majority go to Paxton, which would put him right around 50%.

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