Early voting by personal appearance begins Monday for the November 8 general election. Absentee voting is already underway. As of yesterday (Mon.), at least 65K mail ballots had been returned.

‍Turnout Projections: In a call with reporters, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) said he expected turnout for the general election to exceed 10M voters, which is consistent with independent projections from Republican strategist and data nerd Derek Ryan (around 10.2M) and our own projections of 9.5M to 10.25M.

Our numbers would represent a decrease of 9%-16% from the total number of voters in 2020 – a bigger percentage decline than 2018 relative to 2016, but a much smaller percentage decline than the historical average of a 34% decrease since 1990. The number of voters in 2018 declined by 7% relative to the number who voted in 2016. In 2020, a total of 11.3M people cast a ballot for a certified presidential candidate, a new record for the state. A 7% decline would result in 10.5M voters.

If 10M Texans cast ballots for governor, then turnout would be 57% of registered voters and 52% of the voting-eligible population. These would represent the highest such figures for a mid-term election since at least 1980. For reference, 2016 turnout was 67% of registered voters and 60% of the voting-eligible population.

‍GOV (Likely R): The campaign of Gov. Greg Abbott (R) released a new ad, “Stacy,” featuring the story of a mother of a murdered son.

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