A new Univ. of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll shows Gov. Greg Abbott (R) leads Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke, 48%-37%, a 1-point larger margin from the school’s February poll. Abbott’s favorability rating is 46/40 (+6) while O’Rourke is underwater at 38/47 (-9).

Republicans lead the generic ballot test for Congress (48%-39%) and the legislature (47%-39%). Respondents had a negative overall opinion of the Republican Party (40/47), but the rating has improved significantly since the August 2021 poll (34/51). The Democratic Party’s favorability rating remained worse (34/53) and unchanged since August (34/54).

Early voting has concluded for the May 7 general, special and constitutional amendment elections. Statewide, early voting turnout for the constitutional amendment election is 4.8% through yesterday (Tuesday), the last day to vote early in person. Absentee ballots returned after yesterday will likely push early voting turnout north of 5%.

Turnout for the HD147 (Safe D) special election sits at 2.6% as of yesterday. Just over 3K voters have cast ballots in the race between Jolanda Jones (D) and Danielle Keys Bess (D), who will meet again in the May 24 runoff.

HD17 open (Safe R): Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC endorsed Stan Gerdes (R) in the runoff over Paul Pape (R). The group did not endorse in the five-way primary.

HD52 open (Lean R): Nelson Jarrin, who finished third in the Republican primary, endorsed Caroline Harris (R) in the runoff over Pat McGuinness.

CD28 (Lean D): The Democracy Project, a Super PAC connected to the American Israel PAC, upped its spending in the race to nearly $750K, nearly all of it opposing challenger Jessica Cisneros (D).

CD30 open (Safe D): The Jane Hope Hamilton (D) campaign released a new ad, “The Fighter We Need,” which includes a criticism of Rep. Jasmine Crockett’s (D) accepting the support of cryptocurrency traders.

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