The Reddening of the Hispanic Vote
by Jeff Blaylock
Boyz II Men had the No. 1 song, and Tim Allen’s The Santa Clause was No. 1 at the box office. As AOL was cheerfully announced we had mail, Zip Disks began freeing us from the tyranny of floppies. The Dallas Cowboys were Super Bowl champions.
That was the most recent time Texas voters elected Democrats to statewide offices. Since then, the last 167 candidates elected statewide in Texas have been Republicans, including the eight who won on Tuesday. The voters of every other state have elected at least one Democrat statewide since Texas last did it, including states much redder than Texas is today.
Thirty years of losing … and counting. There have been a few “almosts” like John Sharp and Paul Hobby in 1998, the Barack Obama wave of 2008 and Beto O’Rourke six years ago. There was no “almost” about this year’s election. Tuesday’s results reinforced not only the gap between the two parties but also the rapid erosion of the Democratic brand among Hispanic and Latino voters.
Exit polling indicates Hispanic/Latino voters favored former President Trump over Vice President Harris, 55%-44%, but that was not the most surprising data point. More revelatory is realizing Hispanic/Latino men (64%-35%, +29%) voted for Trump at a rate much closer to White men (68%-29%, +39%) than Hispanic/Latino women (43%-55%, minus-12%). Trump’s campaign was especially aimed at men, and it appears that strategy has worked and continues to work.
But we don’t need exit polling to reveal the increasing success of Republican candidates among Hispanic/Latino voters. We just need to look at the map.
The reddening of South and West Texas accelerated since Trump’s first election in 2016. Trump improved his performance in every one of these counties, many of them by more than 10 points – 14 of them by more than 20 points. His 52.5% in Cameron Co. is 20.5 percentage points higher than his 32.0% in 2016. In Hidalgo Co., Trump received 51.0% percent of the vote, up 23.0 points from 2016. In Webb Co., Trump won with 50.7% of the vote, up 28.1 points from his first run for president.
His vote share rose 39% in Starr Co., 38% in Maverick Co., 28% in Zapata, 25% in Jim Hogg Co., 22% in Zavala Co., 21% in Brooks and Willacy counties and almost 20% in Val Verde Co. Overall, he improved his performance among the dozen border counties by 20.9 percentage points over 2016, carrying all but two of them. In 2016, he won five of them.
Whatever advantage Democrats had historically relied upon in South Texas is largely gone. Clinton’s nearly 240,000 net vote advantage from border counties in 2016 has shrunk to just over 11,000 votes. Among all the counties shown on the map, a net margin of over 300,000 votes for Democrats has shrunk to fewer than 20,000 votes.
We have not explored precinct-level data yet, but I suspect Trump gained support among Hispanics and Latinos in the urban and counties that have lately been Democratic strongholds. In 2020, President Biden received more than 923,000 net votes in Dallas, Harris, Travis and Bexar counties combined. Trump cut that margin to around 567,000 net votes this year, a shift of more than 350,000 votes.
Put together, these are staggering losses of net votes coming from the only areas Democrats have performed well in recent elections. The rest of the state is a rural red wall.
Trump’s margin in counties with fewer than 20,000 registered voters almost completely offset Harris’s advantage in counties with at least 500,000 registered voters. The counties in between are solidly red. Harris won exactly one county with between 20,000 and 500,000 registered voters: Hays.
Trump received at least 80% of the vote in 129 of the state’s 254 counties. Harris had single-digit support in two dozen counties. Trump’s worst performance was 29.4% in Travis Co. Harris cleared that figure in just over 50 counties. Trump’s advantage in counties with fewer than 50,000 registered voters exceeded 900,000 net votes. Add the counties with between 50,000 and 100,000 registered voters, and the Republican’s advantage rose to 1.3 million votes. As of this writing, that’s more than the total number of votes cast for any candidate in at least 20 different states.
We have focused this analysis on the presidential race. Keep in mind that Trump slightly under-performed other Republican statewide candidates, as he has in every election. The statewide judicial candidates averaged 58%, a little over a point and a half above Trump.
There are only three methods to increase a political party’s share of the vote: convert existing voters from the other party, win crossover votes for specific candidates and attract new voters. Republicans have the edge in the first method as evidenced by the map above. Crossover voting has become increasingly rare, at least at the statewide level. Roughly 1 out of every 55 voters selected Allred and otherwise mostly if not entirely Republican candidates. This is not surprising. It’s been six years since single-punch, straight-party voting was an option, but its popularity had grown until it was being used by seven out of every 10 voters.
That leaves new voters, a group that historically votes at much lower rates than recent voters. New voters fall into four basic buckets: Texans who haven’t registered to vote, Texans who are registered but haven’t voted, new Texans who recently moved into the state and young adult Texans turning 18.
Starting with the last group, voters under age 24 favored Trump, 54%-43%, according to exit polling. At least for now, that option is not particularly great for Democrats.
The potential impact of the other three groups is harder to tease out, largely because many more of them don’t vote than do. Those that have voted left behind some breadcrumbs. According to the exit poll, the 9% of voters who answered yes to “Is this the first year you have ever voted?” went to Trump, 80%-19%. According to Derek Ryan’s analysis of primary voting, around 30,000 voters with “no voting history” cast ballots early in this year’s Republican primary compared to around 18,000 in the Democratic primary. So new voters seem to be more in the Republican column, on balance, at least for now.
That leaves non-voters, and there are a lot of them. More than 7 million registered voters did not cast a ballot in this year’s presidential election. Another 1.5 million or so Texans who are eligible to vote were not registered in time to vote in last week’s election.
Sadly, neither of these figures is new or unusual. At least 5 million registered voters did not vote in each even-year general election since 1998. At least 1.5 million eligible Texans were not registered to vote in each even-year general election since 2010 (In other words, since the Obama blue wave of 2008).
Getting non-voters to the polls has historically been quite a challenge. Frequent voters tend to vote. Non-voters tend not to vote. #analysis
Going into the 2020 election, there were almost 5 million Texans who had voted in at least one of the last four general election but no primary elections, according to Derek Ryan. More than 2 million of them didn’t vote in 2020. There were even more registered voters with no recent voting history whatsoever (This would include newly registered voters.). More than 4 million of them didn’t vote in 2020.
Coming into 2024, these two groups of sporadic voters and non-voting registrants accounted for more around two thirds of Texans registered to vote in last week’s election. We do not have final figures on their participation, but it is unlikely to be very different from most past years. In other words, much lower than frequent voters.
If, on balance, new voters are trending Republican, converted voters are turning Republican, non-voters are hard to motivate, and everyone else was already favoring Republicans, then there is very little fertile ground left aside from unregistered but eligible Texans, a group that is surely unlikely to vote in huge enough numbers even if they were registered.
That’s not to say it is impossible. In 2026, Democratic candidates will be running against the Trump White House rather than away from Biden. For Democratic candidates, 2018 was undoubtedly a better year than 2016. It wasn’t enough, but it was better. No one truly knows what the economy will be like in two years or how world events may shape voters’ opinions. No one can predict if voters might sour on Republicans’ more conservative agenda sure to be enacted this session. Inspirational candidates may arise.
The road, already long traveled, remains long and difficult. With a broken brand and a lack of avenues to win over voters, Democrats are poised to continue their statewide losing streak.
Jeff Blaylock is the founder of TXElects Legacy & Senior Editor of TXLege News. You can follow Jeff on X and LinkedIn.
We hope you enjoyed today’s read!
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How AI Legislative Tracking Helps Teams Monitor Bills Across All 50 States
AI legislative tracking gives teams one clear way to follow every bill that matters to them, even when those bills move through 50 different state legislatures at the same time.
Instead of checking dozens of government websites by hand, you get a single feed that flags new bills, status changes, and votes as they happen.
This article breaks down how the technology works, why manual bill tracking falls short, and what to look for when you put a system like this to work.
Software powered by artificial intelligence scans state legislation around the clock, sorts it by topic, and alerts you the moment something changes.
That means less guesswork, fewer missed deadlines, and more time to act on the laws that affect your organization.
The volume of new bills is the real story. In 2023, lawmakers introduced fewer than 200 AI-related bills.
By 2025, all 50 states had introduced at least one, with about 1,208 such bills filed across the country.
By early 2026, lawmakers in 45 states had already filed more than 1,500 AI-related bills, passing all of 2024 in just the first few months.
No human team can read that much, but smart software can.
If you want to see how teams put this into practice, AI legislative tracking is the place to start.
0.1 Why Manual Bill Tracking Breaks Down in the Legislative Process
Picture a small policy team trying to watch new laws in California, Texas, Florida, and New York all at once.
Each state runs its own website.
Each one uses different words for the same idea. Each one posts updates on its own schedule.
The team checks every site by hand, copies bill numbers into a spreadsheet, and hopes nobody forgets to refresh the page.
This is slow, and it is easy to miss things.
Manual tracking tends to fail in a few common ways:
- Missed bills. A new bill slips through because nobody searched the right keyword that week.
- Stale information. A spreadsheet shows last month's status, not today's committee vote.
- Wasted hours. Skilled staff spend the day on copy-and-paste work instead of analysis.
- No early warning. By the time someone notices a bill, the comment window has already closed.
When you multiply these problems across all 50 states, the cracks turn into a real risk.
A single overlooked amendment can change how a law applies to your business.
And state bills are only part of the picture, since federal and local governments also pass their own rules.
0.2 How Artificial Intelligence Legislative Tracking Actually Works
The technology sounds complex, but the core idea is simple.
The program does the reading, so your team thinks.
Here is the basic flow most systems follow:
- Data ingestion. The tool continuously scrapes government websites and gathers real-time information from official sources across all states.
- Reading. Machine learning algorithms scan the bill text and figure out what each measure is really about, even when the wording is messy.
- Sorting. The system categorizes bills by topic, such as taxes, health care, employment, commerce, or data privacy.
- Matching. It compares each new bill against the keywords and issues you care about.
- Alerting. When a match appears or a status changes, you get a notification right away.
Because the software learns from patterns, it gets sharper at spotting the bills you want over time.
It can tell the difference between a bill that simply mentions your topic and one that would truly affect you.
A good legislation tracker can also boil a dense bill down to a short, useful summary.
That helps policymakers and staff grasp the intent of a proposed law without reading 40 pages of legal text.
Watching All 50 States Without the Headache
The biggest payoff is scale.
One person can track thousands of bills across the country from a single dashboard.
A few features make this possible:
- Unified search. Type one keyword and see matching state legislation everywhere, not state by state, so you can identify relevant measures faster.
- Real-time alerts. Get an email or text the moment a bill moves to committee or heads for a floor vote.
- Status timelines. See where each bill sits in the legislative process, from introduction to enacted law.
- Plain summaries. Read a short, clear recap instead of pages of dense language.
The strongest systems reach past statehouses, too.
They follow Congress, federal agencies, Washington, and even city and county governments, so nothing important falls through the gaps.
This can matter because state legislative sessions often run on tight calendars.
Some states meet for only a few months, and bills can move fast once a session starts.
Quick alerts give your team the head start it needs to weigh in before a vote.
The numbers show why speed counts. In 2024, lawmakers introduced roughly 635 AI-related bills across at least 45 states.
In 2025, that figure passed 1,200, and 145 of those measures became enacted legislation. The pace is not slowing down.
What These New Laws Actually Cover
The bills moving through state legislatures touch many parts of daily life. Knowing the broad buckets helps you set up smarter alerts.
Common themes in recent AI legislation include:
- Transparency rules that ask companies to disclose when a person is talking to a machine.
- Content labels for deepfakes, ads, and political messages, including rules for ai generated content and disclosures when material is generated by a system.
By the start of 2025, more than 30 states had laws addressing nonconsensual explicit deepfakes, many of them passed during 2024. - Consumer protection measures that address the harms and risks of automated decisions often respond to public concerns and the potential impact on affected organizations or sectors.
- Employment and hiring rules that limit how automated systems screen job applicants.
- Government task forces that study new technologies, support education, and recommend future rules on AI and related technologies.
Some proposals focus on generative AI specifically, with each such proposal treated as an AI-related bill.
Some lawmakers argue AI tools like ChatGPT can threaten free speech under book bans.
Others warn the government's two-tiered approach could risk Americans' constitutional rights.
Tracking these themes lets your organization develop strategies before a rule takes effect, not after. Early insight turns a surprise into a plan.
To get a broader view of how state legislatures work and where official bill data comes from, the National Conference of State Legislatures publishes plain-language background on AI policy by state.
Pairing that knowledge with smart software helps your team understand both the rules and the tools.
0.5 The Practical Benefits and Actionable Insights for Teams
Faster information leads to better decisions. When you have access to reliable information, you can act with confidence instead of scrambling at the last minute.
Teams that use automated bill monitoring often see gains like these:
- Time saved. Routine searching shrinks from hours to minutes.
- Fewer surprises. Early alerts mean fewer last-minute fire drills.
- Sharper focus. Staff spend their energy on strategy, not data entry.
- Better coverage. Small teams can watch the same ground that once needed a large department.
- Actionable insights. Trend analysis across dozens of bills shows where the law is heading next.
When AI is used in government, teams also need the right infrastructure and security to protect data privacy.
These benefits build on each other.
The more bills a team can watch, the better it can predict outcomes and protect the people it serves and each client.
0.6 What to Look For in a Legislation Tracker System
Not every tool fits every team, so it helps to explore your options before you commit.
Before you commit, it helps to weigh a few key factors side by side, including a vendor's methodology for tracking and analysis.
That last row is worth a closer look.
AI can misread legal nuance, and it can even produce made-up references when its training data is thin.
The technology may also inherit bias from that data. So the goal is not to replace people.
The goal is to let software handle the heavy reading while humans handle the judgment.
How to Choose the Right Legislative Tracking and Management Software for Your Organization
Many organizations still rely on spreadsheets, scattered email alerts, and manual bill tracking methods that waste time and increase the risk of missing important updates.
As legislation moves through Congress, committee hearings, and state legislatures, even a small delay in tracking can create problems for stakeholders, clients, and government affairs teams.
Modern legislative tracking software gives users access to centralized data, advanced reporting, automated alerts, and collaboration tools that improve efficiency and support informed decisions.
For organizations involved in advocacy, public policy, government relations, or regulatory monitoring, the right system can help teams stay ahead of fast-moving policy changes.
Organizations comparing platforms often begin by reviewing solutions focused on legislative tracking and management software that combine legislative tracking, policy tracking, stakeholder engagement, and analysis into one system.
Why Legislative Tracking Matters More Than Ever
Government activity moves quickly across Congress, federal agencies, and state legislatures.
A single bill can move through committee assignments, amendments, hearings, and floor votes within days.
That pace creates pressure for public affairs professionals, advocacy groups, and government affairs professionals who need accurate information before making strategic decisions.
Legislative tracking helps organizations:
- Track bills in real time
- Monitor regulatory developments
- Analyze policy developments
- Stay informed about government actions
- Support advocacy efforts
- Improve stakeholder engagement
- Save time on manual research
Without proper tracking software, teams may miss alerts tied to committee hearings, amendments, or policy changes that affect operations and compliance.
The Growing Complexity of Bill Tracking
Bill tracking has become harder because organizations now monitor legislation across multiple levels of government.
Federal legislation, local policy updates, and state law changes often overlap within the same policy areas.
Public affairs professionals often monitor:
Many public affairs professionals use legislative tracking software because manual tracking can become overwhelming when teams need to follow hundreds of bills across different government systems.
On average, only about 6% of proposed legislation becomes law.
Even so, organizations still need to monitor every important bill because amendments and committee actions can influence policy before final passage.
Features Every Legislative Tracking Tool Should Include
Real Time Alerts
Real time alerts are one of the most important features in any legislative tracking tool.
Organizations need alerts that notify users immediately when:
- A bill changes status
- Committee hearings are scheduled
- Amendments are introduced
- Regulations are updated
- Government actions affect policy areas
- State legislators sponsor new legislation
Fast alerts help organizations stay ahead instead of reacting too late.
An effective legislative tracking tool should allow users to customize alerts based on:
- Keywords
- Policy areas
- Committees
- Sponsors
- States
- Date ranges
- Regulatory topics
Real-time alerts can also be delivered through mobile notifications, dashboards, and email alerts, so users receive important information quickly.
AI-Powered Analysis and Summaries
Modern software increasingly uses machine learning to simplify legislative tracking and analysis.
AI-powered systems can:
- Summarize legislation
- Highlight changes in the bill text
- Identify trends in policy developments
- Categorize legislation automatically
- Generate actionable insights
These tools help public affairs professionals analyze legislation faster and make informed decisions without reviewing every page manually.
AI summaries are especially useful when Congress releases lengthy amendments or committee markups shortly before hearings.
Advanced Reporting and Analytics
Advanced reporting tools help organizations analyze legislative trends and support strategic decisions.
A strong legislative tracking tool should provide:
- Custom dashboards
- Exportable reports
- Trend analysis
- Search filtering
- Stakeholder reports
- Historical tracking
Advanced reporting also helps government affairs teams communicate updates clearly to leadership, clients, and stakeholders.
Organizations that rely heavily on advocacy and government relations often need advanced reporting to demonstrate policy influence and measure advocacy efforts.
Why Collaboration Features Matter
Legislative tracking is rarely handled by one person alone.
Government affairs teams, advocacy groups, legal departments, and compliance professionals often work together to analyze legislation and coordinate responses.
Good collaboration features allow users to:
- Add comments to legislative records
- Share analysis internally
- Assign bills to team members
- Add tags and labels
- Monitor workflow progress
- Track stakeholder engagement
These features help organizations operate more efficiently while reducing duplicate work.
Stakeholder Mapping and Relationship Management
Many legislative tracking software platforms now include stakeholder mapping tools.
These tools help organizations:
- Track relationships with lawmakers
- Monitor interactions with staff
- Organize committee assignments
- Analyze influence patterns
- Build meaningful relationships
Government relations teams often use stakeholder mapping to identify opportunities to influence policy and engage decision-makers more effectively.
For example, organizations may analyze committee assignments to determine which lawmakers influence specific policy areas.
Coverage Across Multiple Levels of Government
The best policy tracking systems monitor legislation across multiple levels of government.
That includes:
- Congress
- Federal agencies
- State legislatures
- Local governments
- Regulatory agencies
Broad coverage helps organizations stay informed about policy changes that may affect operations nationally and regionally.
Organizations involved in public policy or advocacy often need access to federal legislation alongside state law and local regulations.
Without broad coverage, users may miss important government actions tied to interconnected policy developments.
How Legislative Tracking Software Improves Efficiency
Manual bill tracking requires staff to search the government website for updates.
That process consumes valuable resources and increases the chance of missing critical alerts.
Tracking software improves efficiency by automating:
- Bill monitoring
- Status updates
- Alerts
- Search functions
- Reporting
- Policy tracking
- Data organization
Automated tracking allows users to focus on analysis and advocacy instead of repetitive administrative work.
Legislative tracking software also helps organizations stay ahead by providing early warnings about committee hearings, proposed legislation, and regulatory developments.
What Public Affairs Professionals Need Most
Public affairs professionals often manage large volumes of legislative data under tight deadlines.
To support that work, software should provide:
- Easy access to information
- Fast search capabilities
- Accurate alerts
- Real-time analysis
- Collaboration tools
- Support for advocacy efforts
Public affairs professionals also need tools that simplify communication with stakeholders and clients.
The ability to export reports, organize policy tracking, and monitor government actions in one place can deliver results faster than fragmented systems.
The Importance of User Experience
A legislative tracking tool may include advanced features, but poor usability can limit effectiveness.
Organizations should evaluate:
- Dashboard layout
- Navigation speed
- Search performance
- Mobile access
- Reporting design
- Support options
Simple interfaces help users act quickly during fast-moving legislative process updates.
Government affairs professionals often need immediate access to bill information during hearings, advocacy meetings, or policy reviews.
If software is difficult to use, teams may avoid the system entirely.
Scalability for Small Teams and Large Enterprises
Organizations vary widely in size.
Some advocacy groups monitor a handful of bills, while large enterprises track legislation across all 50 states and Congress simultaneously.
Scalable tracking software should support:
- Growing data volumes
- Additional users
- Expanded policy tracking
- Multi-state monitoring
- Large reporting needs
Affordability also matters because software pricing can vary significantly.
Smaller organizations may prioritize cost-effective tools with basic bill tracking and alerts, while large enterprises may need advanced reporting, stakeholder mapping, and machine learning capabilities.
Questions Organizations Should Ask Before Choosing Software
Before selecting a legislative tracking tool, organizations should evaluate operational needs carefully.
Key Questions to Ask
Organizations should also review how quickly the software processes legislative updates from congress and state legislatures.
Fast updates help teams stay ahead of competitors and respond more effectively to policy developments.
How Legislative Tracking Supports Advocacy
Advocacy organizations depend on accurate tracking to influence policy and coordinate outreach.
Legislative tracking helps advocacy groups:
- Monitor legislation
- Engage stakeholders
- Analyze policy changes
- Organize government relations
- Respond to committee hearings
- Support strategic decisions
Strong policy tracking systems also help advocacy organizations communicate with clients and leadership more clearly.
Texas Political Spotlight
Happy hour · You’re invited Join us in celebrating. You’re invited to celebrate our founder’s birthday with us for happy hour. RSVP and we’ll send you the details. RSVP to the happy hour → |
Best in Government Affairs · Texas Peer nominated. Peer reviewed. Unlike other awards, next year you have the chance to win. Just nominate someone you would actually want to work with. See photos and winners from the night. See the photos and winners → |
Texas Senate Republican Caucus · Gala & golf tournament Photos from the night. USLege was a sponsor. See the full photo set from the gala and golf tournament. Browse the photos → |
For existing customers Already on USLege? Get a 30-minute walkthrough of what’s new with our wider lens, with your account manager Luke. Book training with Luke → |
This newsletter is AI generated and human reviewed. Strictly nonpartisan. Built on USLege legislative data and verbatim public-record transcripts. Built with the power of USLege. |
USLege, Inc. © 2026 · Austin, TX |
Texas Political Spotlight
Happy hour · You’re invited Join us in celebrating. You’re invited to celebrate our founder’s birthday with us for happy hour. RSVP and we’ll send you the details. RSVP to the happy hour → |
Best in Government Affairs · Texas Peer nominated. Peer reviewed. Unlike other awards, next year you have the chance to win. Just nominate someone you would actually want to work with. See photos and winners from the night. See the photos and winners → |
Texas Senate Republican Caucus · Gala & golf tournament Photos from the night. USLege was a sponsor. See the full photo set from the gala and golf tournament. Browse the photos → |
For existing customers Already on USLege? Get a 30-minute walkthrough of what’s new with our wider lens, with your account manager Luke. Book training with Luke → |
This newsletter is AI generated and human reviewed. Strictly nonpartisan. Built on USLege legislative data and verbatim public-record transcripts. Built with the power of USLege. |
USLege, Inc. © 2026 · Austin, TX |
Texas Political Spotlight
Welcome back, friends
Texas hemp businesses have filed suit to block new state regulations they say effectively ban smokeable hemp products and impose licensing fee increases so steep they could force many businesses to close. Yesterday, the Texas House State Affairs Committee heard testimony on the explosive growth of data centers in the state, with interconnection requests on the power grid now exceeding 400,000 megawatts and raising questions about cost, reliability, and water usage. Lastly, nineteen Texas summer camps are challenging a new state mandate requiring them to install fiber optic internet infrastructure, citing costs as high as $1.2 million and arguing the requirement is unworkable for rural properties and does nothing to improve camper safety.
Before you dive in…
USLege will be hosting our first ever Best in Government Affairs Awards Ceremony on April 23rd at Speakeasy in Downtown Austin.
Winners and guests will be treated to evening of celebration for the accomplishments in the 89th Texas Legislative Session.
You can expect music, networking, food & drinks and formal award acceptance.
This is going to be a fun party! We hope to see you there.
»» RSVP HERE: Best in Government Affairs Awards Ceremony hosted by USLege
»» Watch Representative Ken King’s Intro Here ««
We hope you enjoyed today’s read!
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Texas Political Spotlight
Welcome back, friends
A federal trial is underway in Texas over whether the state's prison system has done enough to protect inmates from extreme heat, with a price tag of $1.5 billion standing at the center of the debate. Texas House Speaker Dustin Burrows has tasked a new legislative committee with studying whether Texas could absorb one or more counties from New Mexico, a long-shot proposal that has already drawn a sharp response from the neighboring state's governor. A public feud between Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and acting Comptroller Kelly Hancock has spilled into federal court, where a judge is overseeing the fallout in a lawsuit alleging religious discrimination in the state's $1 billion ESA Program.
We hope you enjoyed today’s read!
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